- Turkey's unemployment rate woulr rise over 11 percent in 2015 and remain on that level in the following year, according to IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook (WEO), released on Tuesday.
Turkey's unemployment rate would rise by 0.5 points to 11.4 percent in 2015, from 9.9 percent in 2014 and rise further to 11.6 percent in 2016, according to the data in the IMF's WEO.
Turkish economic growth would rise to 3.1 percent in 2015 and to 3.6 percent in 2016, from 2.9 in 2014 according to the IMF report. Growth estimates of IMF for both years were at 3.4 percent in the previous WEO released in February.
The IMF estimated Turkey's annual inflation rates at 6.6 percent in 2015 and 6.5 percent in 2016, still hegher than Central Bank's targets and governments predictions, both 5.0 percent.
Global growth forecast seen unchanged at 3.5 percent this year and 3.8 percent in 2016, the IMF said in the WEO. "Divergent growth: stronger in advanced economies, lower in emerging economies. Macro risks decreased, but financial and geopolitical risks increased."
“A number of complex forces are shaping the prospects around the world” said Olivier Blanchard, IMF Economic Counselor and Director of Research. “Legacies of both the financial and the euro area crises—weak banks and high levels of public, corporate, and household debt—are still weighing on spending and growth in some countries. Low growth in turn makes deleveraging a slow process.”
Blanchard also noted that the combination of population aging, lower investment, and sluggish advances in productivity will lead to significantly lower potential growth both in advanced and emerging market economies. “More subdued growth prospects lead, in turn, to lower spending and lower growth today” he added.
On top of these underlying forces, two major factors, both with major distributional implications, dominate the current scene: the decline in the price of oil and exchange rate movements. “Large movements in relative prices, whether exchange rates or the price of oil, creates winners and losers” said Blanchard.
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